| 基于关键链的输电线路施工进度预测模型设计 |
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| 引用本文：李莉.基于关键链的输电线路施工进度预测模型设计[J].电网与清洁能源,2020,36(2):38~43 |
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| 基金项目:陕西自然科学基金资助项目（2018JS081296） |
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| 中文摘要:以加强输电线路整体建设和管理为目的，对输电线路施工的整体进度进行研究，提出并设计了基于关键链的输电线路施工进度预测模型。分析影响输电线路施工进度的因素分析，综合考量资源约束与时间约束生成的关键链替换关键路径当作施工瓶颈，引入模糊方法对关键链下输电线路施工进度进行预测。利用模糊数描述主观预测具备的模糊性，采用梯形模糊数表征施工工程整体时间，得到工程最可能的进度时刻。在安排好工程各项工作整体顺序的前提下，利用正推法、逆推法设置各个工序时间参数，同时对其总时差进行计算，选择总时间最长的线路当作计划中的关键路径。以缩短工期为目的，结合施工进度预测和关键路径确定，分别通过项目进度计划、缓冲区确定、工程进度控制等关键模块对输电线路施工进度和日常安排进行管理。实验结果表明，该模型与实际工况拟合度高，预测时间较短，整体可靠性优于当前相关成果。 |
| 中文关键词:关键链 输电线路 施工进度 预测 |
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| Design of Construction Progress Prediction Model for Transmission Lines Based on Critical Chain |
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| Abstract:For the purpose of strengthening the overall construction and management of transmission lines， it is of great significance to study the overall construction progress of transmission lines. Given that the fitting degree of the relevant research results and the actual working conditions is rather low at present， this paper designs and proposes a prediction model of the transmission line construction progress based on critical chain. The paper analyzes the factors affecting the construction schedule of transmission lines， comprehensively considers the replacement of critical path with critical chain generated by resource constraints and time constraints as the construction bottleneck， and introduces the fuzzy method to predict the construction schedule of transmission lines under the critical chain. The fuzzy number is used to describe the fuzziness of subjective prediction， and the trapezoidal fuzzy number is used to represent the overall time of construction project to get the most likely schedule of the project.On the premise of arranging the overall sequence of all the works in the project， the time parameters of each process are set by using the forward push method and the reverse push method. Meanwhile， the total time difference is calculated， and the line with the longest total time is selected as the critical path in the plan. In order to shorten the construction period， the construction schedule and daily arrangement of the transmission line are managed through key modules such as project schedule plan， buffer zone determination and project schedule control respectively in combination with construction schedule prediction and critical path determination. The experimental results show that the model has a high fitting degree with the actual conditions， a short prediction time， and a better overall reliability than the current relevant results. |
| keywords:critical chain transmission line construction progress prediction |
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