| 我国电力消费的脱钩与区域差异 |
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| 引用本文：杨国清1,陈晔1,王德意1,张靖滢2.我国电力消费的脱钩与区域差异[J].电网与清洁能源,2020,36(8):1~8 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51507134） |
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| 中文摘要:通过建立电力消费的Tapio脱钩模型，研究全国及各省份电力消费脱钩状态，使用关联规则对各省脱钩状态进行分析；应用泰尔指数法，从区域电力消费差异角度分析整体脱钩状态转移情况。结果表明：供给侧改革以来，我国电力消费脱钩状态保持扩张相对脱钩，但从历史趋势来看，仍需警惕经济周期性变化带来的复钩可能；我国绝大多数省份近年来均不同程度地实现了向扩张相对脱钩的转变，区域脱钩状态大多已处于或正逐步向较好状态转移；我国电力消费区域差异主要由区域内差异引起，且区域内差异逐年增大。 |
| 中文关键词:电力消费 经济增长 Tapio脱钩模型 关联规则 泰尔指数 |
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| Decoupling and Regional Differences of Electricity Consumption in China |
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| Abstract:In this paper， the Tapio decoupling model of power consumption is established to study the decoupling state of power consumption over the country and in provinces. The decoupling state of each province is analyzed using association rules. At the same time， the Theil index method is used to analyze the overall decoupling state transition from the perspective of regional power consumption differences. The results show that since the supply-side reform， the decoupling state of China’s power consumption has remained relatively decoupled， but from the perspective of historical trends， it is still necessary to be vigilant of the possibility of recoupling caused by cyclical economic changes. In recent years， most provinces in China have realized the transition to expansion relative decoupling to different degrees， and most of the regional decoupling states have been good or are gradually shifting to a good state. Regional differences in China’s power consumption are mainly caused by differences within each region， and the differences within the region are growing larger year by year. Therefore， in order to achieve absolute decoupling of the expansion of power consumption， the western region should be the focus of the next reform. |
| keywords:power consumption economic growth the Tapio model decoupling association rules Theil index |
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